Libya and Strategies for the Natural Gas Industry: “The Lost Treasure”

By Eng. Issa Rashwan, an expert in the oil sector

One of the most fundamental principles of human nature is the “respect for power and negotiating with it,” or alternatively, “despising the weak, exploiting, or crushing them.” This principle forms one of the most essential laws of strength in the real world.

The strategies behind the global natural gas industry did not emerge by coincidence; they evolved over time in a systematic hierarchy, starting from the base of need and availability, and ascending to the pinnacle of decision-making, where the industry’s magnates and key decision-makers stand.

The base of this pyramid—the market size—is meticulously calculated and safeguarded to prevent any disruption that might collapse the hierarchical system. Tampering with this base invites the “curse of gas,” akin to the “Curse of Cain.”

When the titans of the global gas industry, both producing and consuming giants, were crafting their strategies, Libya and its gas reserves were notably absent from the map of energy supply security. This map is critical for ensuring stable energy supplies to major global powers.

Here, we are discussing the security and stability of existing industries and the economies of major nations—whether it’s the Russian bear, the Chinese dragon, the American hawks, the French rooster, the Spanish matador, the Italian wolf, the German eagle, the Anatolian shepherd dog, or the hidden Solomon’s hoopoe.

When attempts are made to alter the agreed-upon balance and stability of the gas market—a balance maintained for decades—reason disappears, and the survival instincts of these apex predators awaken. History offers lessons for those who can read it, from Iraq to Syria to Ukraine. A closer example is Libya’s NC7 experience in 2011: the fall of a state. We can only hope such a gamble is never repeated.

Survival Strategies

Practically, rather than clinging to denial or post-crisis shock, Libya—representing only 1-2% of the global gas market—must find a safe zone in the international energy market. We must carve out a “green zone” where we can thrive securely without provoking the global “jungle” and its inhabitants.

This requires moving beyond the “gray zone” where competitors—sometimes even regional allies—have placed us, including platforms like the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum and other major alliances.

Indeed, the Barbary lion (Panthera leo), Libya’s historic symbol of strength, has always been a game-changer across eras. It is now up to its descendants to roar strategically, presenting clear plans that reassure the dominant players in the market and maintain the natural balance of the energy ecosystem.

At this moment, rather than engaging in Byzantine debates or dialectic arguments about who “invented the wheel,” it’s worth noting that archaeological evidence confirms the first wheel was invented in the land of the Libu—modern-day Libya.

Currently, with our modest gas production volumes under the dominance of the Italian wolf, the Spanish matador, and the French rooster, it is exceedingly difficult to break free from their strategies. These nations benefit from their geographical proximity to Libya’s natural gas reserves, which translates into faster delivery and lower transportation costs—advantages that are difficult to replicate due to geography.

Meanwhile, Qatar’s or the U.S.’s falcons are geographically distant, with transportation costs proving relatively high and often unreliable due to maritime conditions. Similarly, the Russian bear’s terms are always laced with uncertainty, as its gas exports are entangled with political maneuvers within the European Union.

Thus, Libya must formulate its own national strategies and secure a safe and sustainable place within the global energy market. We must claim a permanent seat at the table of energy supply security. Libya’s geographic location, near West Africa’s gas supply lines and rich in untapped natural reserves, provides a “golden straw” capable of breaking the back of dependence on distant suppliers.

Investing in these opportunities guarantees significant financial, political, and national returns. However, the methods and mechanisms of this investment are up to Libya’s legitimate decision-makers and policymakers.

The Battle for Energy Supply Security

In this battle, good intentions are irrelevant; only tangible, strategic interests matter. This is a call for Libya’s technocrats and national experts to develop long-term strategies for the natural gas industry. These strategies must prioritize sustainability over reactive, momentary decisions. True success lies in consistent, well-defined policies rather than transient, short-lived measures.

Key Pillars for a Long-Term Strategy

1. National Pragmatism:

Develop a pragmatic national strategy that positions the gas sector as one of the strongest contributors to Libya’s GDP, leveraging the downstream industries and byproducts of natural gas.

2. Human Capital Development:

Invest in human resources by enhancing educational curricula in relevant fields, fostering partnerships with global gas companies, and implementing sustainable development programs.

3. International Partnerships:

Establish strategic alliances with countries that share mutual, long-term interests, leveraging Libya’s geographic proximity and the constant demand for nearby energy sources.

4. Resource Assessment and Optimization:

Reassess existing capabilities, identify gaps, and define what is needed to achieve optimal production levels and sustainability.

5. Global Engagement:

Ensure Libya’s active participation in international forums related to natural gas and its downstream industries, securing a strong presence in global decision-making circles.

In the global competition for energy supply security, only the strongest strategies will endure. Libya’s natural gas resources offer a golden opportunity, but only through sound planning and proactive engagement can we ensure our nation’s place as a key player in the global energy market.

Eng. Issa Rashwan